We now have the freedom to say “Tornado”

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According to NOAA’s SPC, there is a risk of severe to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Here’s the 12-7 p.m. weather forecast for Monday, which shows a strong line of thunderstorms moving through the Upper Midwest for the first half of the day. there could be a few more storms later in the afternoon/evening which could also be a bit stronger.

The weather forecast for Sunday will be warm and sticky with a chance of showers and storms, some of which could be heavy to severe. Highs in the Twin Cities will be around 90F, which will be nearly +5F above average. Some western Minnesota communities will be in the mid 90s, which will be nearly +10F above average.

Here is the extended precipitation potential through Tuesday. Areas of heavy precipitation will be possible in the northern part of the state with counts of around 1″. Precipitation amounts will be lighter in the southern half of the state with only a few tenths possible.

Here is the rainfall deviation from average so far this year. Note that the Twin Cities are nearly -3.00″ below average so far this year, but just an hour north, St. Cloud is nearly +6.00″ above average , which is good enough for the 13th wettest start to the year on record there.

Here is the latest update on the drought in Minnesota. Thanks to generally dry weather over the past few weeks, much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, has experienced abnormally dry conditions. There is even a burst of moderate drought in the far south of MN.

Hourly highs for Minneapolis on Sunday show temperatures starting around 70 and warming to the upper 80s to near 90F in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible around noon and then again later in the day. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail. Southerly winds will be strong with gusts near 30 mph at times

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows average or slightly higher temperatures in the Twin Cities subway over the next few days. The hottest and wettest days will be Sunday and Thursday. Tuesday will be a slightly cooler day with highs only warming into the low/mid 80s.

The extended weather forecast over the next 7 days shows average or slightly higher temperatures for most of next week. There will be persistent showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. Drier weather arrives midweek with another chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

According to the ECMWF and GFS Extended Temperature Outlook, temperatures for the next few days will be close to average. Temperatures seem to be gradually warming as we head into mid-July with a few more 90s possible. The second half of the month could be even warmer with highs warming into the 90s and possibly near 100F.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, 8-14 day temperature forecasts show above average temperatures across much of the central United States, including the Midwest.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 day rainfall forecast shows more active weather in place from the desert southwest.

Tornadoes are always capricious, but at least we can talk about them in public. During the 19th and first half of the 20th century, the United States Weather Bureau prohibited forecasters from using the word tornado for fear of creating panic among the population. According to historians, just saying the word meant “career suicide”. In 1948, a few Air Force meteorologists published the first successful tornado forecast in Oklahoma, and the ban was lifted in 1950.

According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Minnesota has experienced 64 (preliminary) tornadoes so far in 2022, double the annual average. Also twice as many 90 degree days at MSP, and the midpoint of summer heat is this week.

If the sun stays out long enough, we could hit 90F today. Add a juicy atmosphere (dew points near 70) with wind shear aloft, and you have the ingredients for some severe T storms later. Stay alert there.

We are cooling off mid-week before the 90s return on Thursday. Despite occasional swarms of storms, I fear the drought will return.

SUNDAY: Sticky, some severe thunderstorms. Winds: S 15-25. High: 90.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Winds: SSW 5-15. Low: 71.

MONDAY: Partially sunny, temporary storm T. Winds: W 10-20. High: 87.

TUESDAY: Sun in the morning, thunderstorms late in the evening (north). Winds: NW 10-20. Wake: 67. High: 83.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with lower humidity. Winds: N 5-10. Awake: 64. High: 82.

THURSDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake: 67. High: 90.

FRIDAY: Still humid, risk of thunderstorm in T. Winds: S 8-13. Awake: 71. High: 92.

SATURDAY: Wet with an isolated thunderstorm. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake: 72. High: 91.

July 10

2002: Intense rains cause major flooding in the streets of Saint-Cloud. 2.70 inches of rain fall in 1 hour and 45 minutes at St. Cloud State University. People got stuck in their car and had to be rescued by firefighters.

July 10

Medium high: 84F (record: 106F set in 1936)

Low average: 66 F (record: 49 F established in 1945 and 1996)

Record rainfall: 1.93″ set in 2002

Record snowfall: none

July 10

Sunrise: 5:36 a.m.

Sunset: 8:59 p.m.

Daylight hours: ~15 hours and 22 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1 minutes and 19 seconds

LOST daylight since Winter Solstice (December 21): ~15 minutes

2.5 days until full moon “Buck”

1:38 p.m. CDT – Named for when new male deer antlers protrude from their foreheads in velvety fur coverings. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, with thunderstorms now being the most common. Sometimes it is also called the Full Hay Moon. The Moon will also arrive at perigee about 9.5 hours earlier, at 0500 EDT (0900 GMT) at a distance of 221,993 miles (357,264 kilometers) from Earth. This will therefore be the biggest full moon of 2022. Very strong ocean tides are to be expected over the next two or three days, thanks to the coincidence of perigee with the full moon.

See more from Space.com HERE:

Sunday’s weather forecast shows above average temperatures across the Plains and Midwest. However, many along the East Coast will be cooler than average, especially in the mid-Atlantic states.

According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of severe to severe thunderstorms in the High Plains and Midwest with large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.

Weather through Tuesday will be unstable across the Midwest with strong to severe storms possible. There will also be persistent showers and storms over the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic with locally heavy precipitation.

According to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier rainfall will be found in the northern part of the country. There will also be heavy rains on the Gulf Coast and the southeastern United States.

“Utah’s Great Salt Lake water levels reached a new all-time low on Sunday, and official draft levels will continue to decline over the coming months. The lake’s average daily surface water rise was measured as follows: 4,190.1 feet at US Geological Survey gauge at Saltair Boat Harbor at the south end of the lake. Last year, on July 23, the same gauge recorded the average daily level of 4,191.3 feet, and the water level continued to plunge to 4,190.2 feet at the end of October. Officials believe lake levels this year will also continue to dip well into the fall or early winter, when storms arrive and agricultural irrigation ends for the season. Persistent drought in the West, exacerbated by climate change, as well as water diversions from the Bear River watershed have long contributed to its depletion.”

See more UPI HERE:

“The following essay is reproduced with permission from The conversation, an online publication covering the latest research. Alaska is on the verge of another historic year of wildfires, with its fastest start to the fire season on record. By mid-June 2022, over 1 million acres had burned. At the beginning of July, this number was good more than 2 million acres, more than twice the size of a typical fire season in Alaska. Rick Thman, a climate expert at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, explains why Alaska is experiencing so many large and intense fires this year and how the region’s fire season is changing.”

See more from Scientific American HERE:

“When smoke from drifting wildfires brings dangerous air pollution to cities and towns across the country, public health officials are urging residents to stay indoors, close windows and use air filters. New research from Stanford University shows that Americans get the message, but rarely manage to keep smoke out of their homes.Researchers led by Marshall Burke, associate professor of Earth system science, have analyzed the consumer air pollution sensor data in 1,520 single family homes across the United States, as well as nearby outdoor air pollution monitors, cell phones, social media posts, and Google searches in English and Spanish between 2016 and 2020.”

See more from Phys.org HERE:

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